As much as we may wish to forget anything having to do with COVID-19, this virus keeps reminding us that we can't do that yet without significant community health repercussions. The trend in increasing cases and hospitalizations continues - this week, Hampshire county has moved back into the medium risk category according to the CDC, indicating that COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased to the point of causing significant challenges and disruptions in usual care at local hospitals. Wastewater surveillance data also continues to increase. Every week there seems to be a little "plateau" where it's unclear if we're at the peak of this surge or if we're just pausing on the way up. So far we've been pausing on the way up, but next week will reveal if this week is the peak or not. My guess is that holiday celebrations will continue to drive transmission and that we'll see more increases. 

As we know, COVID-19 is not the only respiratory virus circulating right now, and unfortunately the medium risk category is just an indication of the burden of COVID-19. When we add in the ongoing challenges we're facing with influenza and RSV, we see a picture of a very stretched healthcare system. It is tempting to think this is something that won't impact us if we don't get COVID-19 (or the flu, or RSV), but it impacts everyone's health care. The risk of COVID-19 is still very much individualized, as we've discussed - each of us has to assess our own risk level and risk tolerance and act accordingly. However, we all will have difficulty accessing important and lifesaving care if local hospitals fill up and the healthcare system is stretched thin. 

Your approach to dealing with COVID-19 remains individual, of course, but this is the time to carefully consider community impact. If you have symptoms like a runny nose or a cough, even if you're "sure" it's not COVID-19, stay home or wear a really good mask in public to protect vulnerable community members. You may even consider masking in public regardless of if you have symptoms, because we know that asymptomatic infections occur and are contagious. I know it's not ideal but the thing I focus on in times like this is that it's not forever. It's a good public health decision to throw a mask on when I'm in public for the next several weeks, so I know I'm doing my part to block chains of transmission in my community, but it will likely only be a matter of weeks until I'm back to my version of regular behavior. 

It's not too late to get the updated bivalent booster! If you find the next available appointment, you'll have excellent protection by mid-January - plenty of time left in the respiratory virus season to reap the benefits of additional protection. The same goes for the annual flu vaccine! It's your best bet to avoid getting sick. We don't have data to determine what proportion of our community has received the updated bivalent booster, and is therefore "up-to-date" on the COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC provides state level data for broad age groups. As of this week, 56% of adults over age 65 have received the updated booster. The proportion drops to 29% of adults 18 years and older. We clearly don't have an exact number, but we have enough of an estimate to say there are a whole bunch of people who are eligible and should definitely get the updated booster who haven't received it yet. 

Stay well,
Megan W. Harvey, PhD (she/her)
Epidemiologist