TOPEKA - Governor Laura Kelly has announced the updated consensus revenue estimates (CRE). Secretary of Administration Adam Proffitt held a press conference immediately following the final CRE meeting on Thursday afternoon. 

“Today’s Consensus Revenue Estimates could be seen as positive news, but in reality, they underscore the seriousness of the financial predicament ahead,” Governor Laura Kelly said. “The bizarre and irresponsible budget gimmicks used by the Republican-led Legislature spend more than the state takes in by nearly $800 million PER YEAR. Ultimately, this will lead to a historically large budget deficit, rivaling the worst of the Brownback years.  

“It comes at the same time the Legislature has guaranteed large tax cuts for wealthy individuals and corporations, instead of the property tax relief they promised Kansas families. Kansans need to demand their legislators restore fiscal sanity and fairness when they return in January.” 

The overall estimate for FY 2025 and FY 2026 was increased by a combined $377.5 million. The estimate for total taxes was increased by $195.1 million, and other revenues were increased by $182.4 million for the two years combined.

“We’re making the best possible estimate that we can, given all the potential headwinds and some of the policies that are shifting on a regular basis,” said Secretary of Administration Adam Proffitt. “I feel like we’ve arrived at a good forecast that can serve policymakers well, over the next 18 months.”

The governor and the Legislature determine State General Fund revenue using the CRE, which is prepared by the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group. 

The Consensus Revenue Estimating Group is composed of representatives from the Division of the Budget, Department of Revenue, and Legislative Research Department, and one consulting economist each from the University of Kansas, Kansas State University, and Wichita State University.  

The group meets twice a year, once in the spring and once in the fall.  

Highlights of Thursday’s findings are below: 

Revenues 

The forecast is filled with uncertainty due to ever-changing federal actions that could significantly impact both the global and domestic economy.

For FY25, total revenues increased by a combined $157.9 million compared to the previous forecast.

• Of this increase, taxes contributed to $101.5 million. Individual and corporate income taxes accounted for $125.0 million of the total.
  
• Other revenues, including interest earnings, increased by $56.4 million. 

In FY26, total revenues were raised by a combined $219.6 million compared to the previous forecast.  

• Taxes contributed to $93.6 million of this increase. The individual and corporate income taxes accounted for $140.0 million.  

• Other revenues saw a significant increase of $126.0 million; half of this was due to the Legislature suspending the Build Kansas transfer for FY26, a one-time event, while the other half resulted from higher interest rates driving up earnings. 

Caseloads

FY25 human services caseload costs decreased by $23.0 million in State General Fund (SGF) vs. the previously approved estimate. 

FY26 human services caseload costs decreased by $13.0 million in SGF vs. the previously approved estimate. 

K-12 caseloads for FY25 and FY26 have very little change vs. previous forecast, though the Kansas State Department of Education is not yet finished with audits to complete student counts.  

Ending Balances 

Ending balance remains a concern:  

• FY25 SGF forecasted at $2.291 billion 

• FY26 SGF forecasted at $1.735 billion 

More concerning than the ending balance is the structural imbalance.

• Expenses are exceeding receipts by approximately $700 - $800 million for each of the next several fiscal years. 

The full memo can be found here.  

Past memos can be found here.